A digital nervous system consisting of 1 trillion sensors provides a continuous stream of real-time data and, with it, many new insights. In 2020, the global market for IT solutions was worth approximately $7.2 trillion. Digitalization is completely disrupting existing value chains. The way consumers interact with companies is also changing fundamentally. In addition to greater access to information, digitalization offers consumers considerable convenience, for example when shopping, making appointments, managing their banking, booking travel, or monitoring their health. However, digitalization trends are not linear.
In 2020, many pure online retailers went bankrupt (IBM), as omnichannel and bricks-and-clicks are shaping the new retail landscape: an integration of physical and digital. This is why online retailers such as Amazon and Zalando are now also opening physical stores. Digital transformation will lead to the loss of 80 percent of current jobs (Singularity University). So far, not enough new work is being created. A three-day working week, a basic income, and “helicopter money” are on the horizon. Old currencies will disappear and new ones will emerge based on blockchain technology. At the same time, our increasing digital connectedness makes us more vulnerable to terrorism. IT security is therefore becoming more important than ever. You could also call it the “Israelization of the economy”: Israel has one of the highest numbers of startups and patents per capita, and this growth and prosperity are partly attributed to a permanent sense of threat. Decades of peace and security have made us less resilient. But we are now going to reassess our priorities and reflect on what truly matters.
The current information revolution is also leading to what Zbigniew Brzezinski (88), former U.S. National Security Advisor, called a “global political awakening of the masses.”
The underground media now emerging has already led to only 23 percent of citizens in the United States trusting mainstream media. The same will happen in the Netherlands and Europe, according to Bakas. Elites losing power and control over citizens respond in confusion. Censorship is back, having never truly disappeared. The privacy debate is becoming increasingly intense, and dictators are restricting social media, as is currently the case in Turkey. Fear of losing power among elites, combined with social unrest caused by mass unemployment and the threat of jihadism, creates what Bakas describes as the perfect storm for a new world war. Cyberwarfare will become a task for a renewed military. The “smart” transformation of all kinds of objects will lead to completely new economic entities that, like companies, governments, and consumers, will independently participate in the economy. Technology will become increasingly intelligent, autonomous, intimate, personal, and intuitive. Technology will become an essential part of our identity. But will technology also help us become more human? The more important our online lives become, the more we will value our offline lives. We will increasingly enjoy physical encounters, cooking and eating together, and sharing intimacy. This will create a new hybrid digital future. In the Age of the Citizen, we will become happier and more complete.
Adjiedj Bakas has been successfully working in the field of futurism for 35 years. In his autobiography Levenslust; lessen van een levenskunstenaar, he opens up about his colorful life and experiences. Not everything has been smooth sailing. He had a difficult childhood in his native Suriname, shaped by a father who was a violent alcoholic. At the age of 18, he came to the Netherlands on his own, integrated successfully, and built a successful career at remarkable speed. However, he lost both of the great loves of his life to cancer. Yet for 33 years—eight years with his first husband, Sjoerd, followed by 25 years with his second husband, Vinco—he loved and was loved. He processed both losses and bravely moved forward.
In this new lecture, delivered with plenty of humor, he shares the lessons he has learned throughout his life. Topics include:
- How do you deal with an addict in your immediate surroundings?
- How do you achieve the right work-life balance?
- How do you make sure you complete your entire bucket list before turning 60?
- How do you organize your own personal growth?
- How do you deal with love and death?
- How do you create a chosen family of friends and selected relatives—in other words, a “framily”?
Adjiedj Bakas has been successfully working in the field of futurism for 35 years. In his autobiography Levenslust; lessen van een levenskunstenaar, he opens up about his colorful life and experiences.
Not everything has been smooth sailing. He had a difficult childhood in his native Suriname, shaped by a father who was a violent alcoholic. At the age of 18, he came to the Netherlands on his own, integrated successfully, and built a successful career at remarkable speed. However, he lost both of the great loves of his life to cancer. Yet for 33 years—eight years with his first husband, Sjoerd, followed by 25 years with his second husband, Vinco—he loved and was loved. He processed both losses and bravely moved forward.
In this new lecture, delivered with plenty of humor, he shares the lessons he has learned throughout his life. Topics include:
- How do you deal with an addict in your immediate surroundings?
- How do you achieve the right work-life balance?
- How do you make sure you complete your entire bucket list before turning 60?
- How do you organize your own personal growth?
- How do you deal with love and death?
- How do you create a chosen family of friends and selected relatives—in other words, a “framily”?
Education for Tomorrow is a lecture about future developments in education. Because we no longer speak German, we miss out on €8 billion in exports to Germany every year. Our future elite spends 8 to 10 hours a week learning dead languages such as Greek and Latin, while Chinese and Hindi are important languages of the future. Entrepreneurship will be crucial in tomorrow’s labor market, as traditional employer-employee relationships are becoming less common. Personal branding will become increasingly important. Every child should feel comfortable with technology, but not every child needs to become a STEM specialist. There is also a labor market for humanities-oriented students, although it may look different from what many people currently expect.
In the “diploma democracy” we have today, too many people are becoming highly educated: all chiefs, no Indians. Skilled trades are returning, modernized by technology. New jobs and appropriate education need to be developed for lower-educated men, who are currently among those losing out from progress. Exciting times lie ahead for education. In this lecture, Adjiedj presents inspiring examples, ideas, and suggestions for everyone who works in education or is otherwise involved in the sector. Learn about the education of tomorrow!
All major changes are preceded by chaos. Changes and innovations often happen gradually, but every once in a while they occur at lightning speed. These revolutionary periods, such as the Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution, were preceded by periods of chaos. In Florence, for example, one-third of the population died from the plague during such a chaotic period, while the city simultaneously became a renowned center of innovation. The Renaissance began there afterward.
Chaos (χάος, emptiness) is, in Greek mythology, the Nothingness from which the first gods emerged. Chaos is sometimes depicted as a bottomless void in which everything falls endlessly—not downward, because there is no orientation at all, but in every direction. From this vast, swirling disorder, a new order eventually emerged.
The COVID-19 pandemic has developed into chaos. Anyone who wants to organize an event or travel the world finds themselves navigating a minefield of rules about what is and is not possible and permitted. At any moment, those rules can change, like traffic lights changing color.
Perhaps this is also because leaders have come to embrace the pandemic. As long as it continues at a low level, with fifth, sixth, and seventh waves and just as many rounds of vaccinations, they do not have to think about other structural problems. According to Bakas, COVID-19 is an ideal distraction that justifies endlessly printing money to prevent public discontent and conceals major underlying problems.
Politicians fear the moment when the slate must be wiped clean. Suddenly, the real challenges become clear again: mass immigration, Islamist terrorism, energy security, an aging population, adapting to climate change, enormous global debt, the economic and political power struggle between the United States and China, extreme inequality, what Bakas describes as the self-destructive “crypto-communist Woke movement and Climate Church,” which he says spread apocalyptic narratives through the media every day, and the uncertain future of the EU and the euro.
The COVID-19 pandemic represents a greater historical turning point than the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bakas. It marks the beginning of a new structural supercycle. Following the first wave of globalization (1860–1914), war and depression (1914–1945), the Bretton Woods period (1945–1970), high inflation (1970–1980), and the hyperglobalization wave (1980–2020), we now face what Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, calls the Era of Disorder. Bakas prefers to call it the Age of Chaos, referring back to the ancient Greek meaning of chaos. In this context, chaos does not mean disorder but shifting structures. Old centers of power make way for new ones, old power relationships are replaced by new ones, dizzying innovations follow one another, and old business models are replaced by new ones.
According to Bakas, China will become the world's largest economy, Europe will once again disintegrate, and Millennials together with Generation Z will take power from the Baby Boomers. The past forty years were characterized by enormous growth in the global workforce, particularly due to China's rise. As a result, real wage growth and inflation remained moderate while inequality exploded. But that period is over. A major shortage of workers threatens to emerge, already becoming visible in the early stages of this crisis, due to an aging population and “slowbalization.”
Not only will the economy undergo structural change, but so will the financial and monetary system, politics, healthcare, food, mobility, logistics, public administration, and our lifestyles. The “Losers of Progress,” who are currently struggling to enter the housing market, will outnumber the Baby Boomers and bring about major changes in tax systems. Tax avoidance will become more difficult, taxes will rise because governments need revenue, and taxes on corporate profits, income, wealth, inheritances, and real estate will increase. A redistribution between generations is on the way. G7 and G20 countries have already reached agreements on establishing a global minimum tax on corporate profits. This is only the beginning.
The cyclical economic consequences of COVID-19 have remained limited in hindsight, but the structural consequences will usher in a new era. Welcome to the Age of Chaos!
Food is a major trend today. Demand for high-quality proteins alone will double in the coming decades: vegetables, dairy, eggs, and meat. This is why we will see industrial agriculture become larger-scale, more technologically advanced, and more intensive than ever. At the same time, small-scale organic farming will serve a growing niche market. Knowledge and expertise from both approaches will increasingly merge in the new food industry: organic meets GMO.
Open innovation, co-creation, and crowdsourcing are transforming the food sector. Genetic modification—which was already practiced by the Incas in 16th-century Peru—will become commonplace. New plant species will emerge from laboratories. We will combat waste in smarter ways. Personalized food will become available, and functional foods will continue to grow in popularity. Around 2050, we could meet double the demand with 65 million fewer cows. If the entire world were as productive as Dutch farmers, we would need only a quarter of the current amount of agricultural land.
Farmers will become increasingly digital and automated: drones will monitor the fertilization, irrigation, and pest-control needs of agricultural areas. Cow manure will be used to create customized fertilizer, while phosphates for agriculture will be extracted from human urine: “pee for food!” The combination of Food & Health will become commonplace. Within ten years, everyone will be “on a diet.” Food apps will emerge.
The countryside will take on a new role: small farms, rural experiences for city dwellers, part-time living, meditation, and relaxation. Industrial agriculture will be concentrated near cities or on industrial estates. We will see vertical farms for vegetables, small fruits, fish, and livestock. Meat substitutes are on the rise, and more people are becoming flexitarians. Low-calorie snacks, new packaging, and preservation techniques will emerge. Europeans currently throw away 50 percent of the food produced for the European market. In India, 40 percent of food spoils between harvest and reaching consumers. That will improve in the future. If necessary, we could feed 24 billion people while returning agricultural land to nature.
The Future of Mobility is a lecture about developments in the future of mobility. Fantasy or reality? A Russian inventor recently presented an idea for an aircraft whose cabin could be detached from the main aircraft. This would make passenger boarding and disembarking at airports more efficient. It would also improve safety. In the event of an emergency in the air, the cabin could be detached, parachutes would deploy, and the cabin containing the passengers would land safely on the ground or at sea.
What about the luggage? It could be transported by land when traveling within your own continent. New supersonic aircraft are being developed, as are aircraft that no longer run on kerosene. But change is not limited to the air. On land, think of electric bicycles, drones, and hyperloops. Yet despite all these innovations, will we eventually travel less as restrictions on travel increase?
Adjiedj explores these developments in his inspiring and thought-provoking lecture about the future of transportation.
However successful modern capitalism may be, it contains structural flaws. As a result, its success can ultimately undermine the system itself. Many people have now seen on television, the internet, and smartphones where in the world living conditions are better. They also have the financial means to pay human smugglers and use smartphone GPS to share information about the best migration routes. The “Great Migration” of the 21st century is therefore, according to Bakas, a direct consequence of the success of capitalism. He argues that it will lead to major social unrest in the coming years and potentially to the end of Europe as we currently know it.
At the same time, a bottom-up empowerment movement of citizens has emerged. Through underground media facilitated by the internet, activist citizens are organizing against the excesses of “grab capitalism” and advocating “Karma Capitalism,” a concept that has also been embraced by some enlightened elites.
According to Bakas, it is not just the banks that have failed as a result of the crisis; the entire financial and economic system has failed, with the middle class paying much of the price. The capitalist system has traditionally depended on two variables: the market and the state. Some economists argue for greater freedom for the market, while others advocate more government influence. But as of 2015, a new variable appears to have entered the equation: individual economic actors who together form a powerful crowd.
Digitalization in particular has given citizens increasing power in recent years. Today, we have access to practically all the world's knowledge, while computing power once reserved for large corporations can now be rented by startups and SMEs. With a 3D printer, we can turn designs into marketable products, while the internet can serve as a sales channel. Through crowdfunding, we can finance our business activities. Digitalization and globalization have turned passive consumers into active prosumer-financiers. Meanwhile, our governments appear to have less and less control over society and the economy, while low interest rates also reduce the power of the market. Globalization is slowing down and transforming into “Slowbalization.”
Adjiedj Bakas has been successfully working in the field of futurism for 35 years. In his autobiography Levenslust; lessen van een levenskunstenaar, he opens up about his colorful life and experiences. Not everything has been smooth sailing. He had a difficult childhood in his native Suriname, shaped by a father who was a violent alcoholic. At the age of 18, he came to the Netherlands on his own, integrated successfully, and built a successful career at remarkable speed. However, he lost both of the great loves of his life to cancer. Yet for 33 years—eight years with his first husband, Sjoerd, followed by 25 years with his second husband, Vinco—he loved and was loved. He processed both losses and bravely moved forward.
In this new lecture, delivered with plenty of humor, he shares the lessons he has learned throughout his life. Topics include:
- How do you deal with an addict in your immediate surroundings?
- How do you achieve the right work-life balance?
- How do you make sure you complete your entire bucket list before turning 60?
- How do you organize your own personal growth?
- How do you deal with love and death?
- How do you create a chosen family of friends and selected relatives—in other words, a “framily”?
Government for Tomorrow is a lecture about future developments within government. An entrepreneurial government? That is what society needs, according to Bakas. In Singapore and South Korea, regular exchanges of personnel between government officials and people from the business world are standard practice. High-performing civil servants can also earn bonuses. Why not?
This lecture focuses on the government of tomorrow. Adjiedj describes the economic pillars that can generate new prosperity for the Netherlands. He predicts that businesses and a renewed government will work closely together: a form of new state capitalism, as already seen in South Korea. Full employment in exchange for an ideal business climate.
Municipalities, provinces, and water authorities will merge into 50 city-states or regions. These will have a high degree of autonomy, similar to the German city-state of Hamburg. Government will become fully automated: we will have digital town halls, such as the municipality of Molenwaard. Better service and cost savings at the same time.
The political landscape will undergo lasting changes and ultimately bear little resemblance to the current system. The EU will implode and the EEC—the former economic cooperation between European countries—will return. Government must formulate a convincing response to the demographic warfare and mass immigration taking place today. It must also provide greater support to those who are losing out from progress within the Netherlands.
Today, regions increasingly promote themselves based on their own specific strengths. Regions generally like to connect with other regions, while nations tend to cherish their sovereignty and separation. They only have a future if they respond effectively to the bottom-up dynamics of the new world.
Many urban regions are already major economic powerhouses within national economies—think of Brainport Eindhoven, the port city of Rotterdam, or Amsterdam as a creative capital. Cities are hubs of economic activity, and because the economy is a leading force in today's world, metropolitan regions increasingly determine our direction, including at a national level.
Innovation and progress take place in cities, although rural regions are catching up as citizens become increasingly connected to the rest of the world through broadband. Today, for example, a starting entrepreneur can rent as much computing power and cloud storage from a farmhouse with a broadband connection as needed. This makes it possible to do things that, only a few years ago, were possible only for large corporations, such as big data analysis.
You no longer need to live in a major city or work for a large company to build a successful business. Moreover, the countryside has considerable economic activity of its own. Think of agriculture and horticulture, a sector that accounts for around 10 percent of the Dutch economy, as well as energy generation and tourism.
Local governments are gaining more power at the expense of national governments. Since 2015, important government responsibilities in the social domain have already been transferred to municipalities. This decentralization took place because municipalities are closer to citizens and can perform these tasks more effectively, with less bureaucracy and therefore at lower cost. The municipality as the first level of government.
In the future, more responsibilities of the national government will be decentralized, particularly if government revenues decline by 30 to 50 percent over the next ten years, as expected at the time of writing. The Swiss democratic system could then serve as an ideal model, with much greater direct influence for citizens and local communities that govern themselves to a certain extent, within the framework of national legislation. This would fit well with the bottom-up character of our times, in which citizens increasingly make their own decisions and pursue entrepreneurial activities.
As much as 86 percent of the Netherlands is undeveloped and belongs to the countryside. The cost of living is significantly lower than in major cities, which is an important consideration in an era of saving. Business premises are also considerably cheaper in rural areas. In major cities, they are often unaffordable for starting entrepreneurs, while rural areas have plenty of space becoming available, such as empty farm buildings.
Many rural regions are reinventing themselves. Food & agriculture serve as an economic engine, based on the idea that prosperity in agriculture supports prosperity more broadly. In a country such as Spain, with its high youth unemployment, the move toward rural areas has already become a genuine trend known as “rurbanization.” A similar trend is now emerging in the Netherlands, for example in the province of Zeeland.
Small is the new big. Demographics are crucial: peace and space will become increasingly valuable in an overcrowded world. Rural towns are apparently becoming attractive locations for entrepreneurs because of their online connectivity: “E-towns.”
The countryside will also increasingly be divided into economic specializations through zoning plans. Some areas will remain focused on agriculture, while others will become tourist or energy destinations. Municipalities will need to make clear choices. Administrative capacity must be strengthened. We do not necessarily need larger municipalities, but stronger regions. With the right investments and courageous leadership, the countryside has a promising future.
Trendwatcher Adjiedj Bakas is the owner and figurehead of Trend Office Bakas. He is an internationally sought-after speaker and moderator at conferences, strategy sessions, and other events. He hosts around 200 lectures and moderation assignments per year. Bakas is provocative and consistently positive, even in times of economic downturn. Adjiedj has an extraordinarily broad range of knowledge, from the latest trends to the future of mobility.
The Future of Energy is a lecture about future developments in the energy sector. If we want to make the 21st century a golden age for humanity as a whole, we need to ensure the availability of water, energy, and raw materials. There is considerable pessimism surrounding these areas, but according to Bakas, there is no reason for it.
Highly intelligent water management systems are emerging, allowing the 1 to 2 percent of fresh water available on Earth to be used effectively for 9 billion people without leading to water wars. At the same time, we are becoming increasingly capable of desalinating seawater, which could significantly increase the amount of fresh water available worldwide.
Fossil fuels will remain part of tomorrow's energy mix, while several new forms of energy will make major advances. Much of our waste is already being reused, and this will increase in the future. A bio-based economy will also emerge, in which plant residues provide raw materials for the chemical industry and other sectors.
Adjiedj shows which breakthrough innovations are taking place behind today's headlines. He discusses smart toilets, self-sufficient homes, greener coal-fired power plants, underground coal gasification, LNG, new forms of mobility, the cars and aircraft of the future, the breakthrough of solar energy, space mining, smart water grids, smart energy grids, deserts becoming green again, and new business models around water, energy, and raw materials.
Adjiedj Bakas has been successfully working in the field of futurism for 35 years. In his autobiography Levenslust; lessen van een levenskunstenaar, he opens up about his colorful life and experiences. Not everything has been smooth sailing. He had a difficult childhood in his native Suriname, shaped by a father who was a violent alcoholic. At the age of 18, he came to the Netherlands on his own, integrated successfully, and built a successful career at remarkable speed. However, he lost both of the great loves of his life to cancer. Yet for 33 years—eight years with his first husband, Sjoerd, followed by 25 years with his second husband, Vinco—he loved and was loved. He processed both losses and bravely moved forward.
In this new lecture, delivered with plenty of humor, he shares the lessons he has learned throughout his life. Topics include:
- How do you deal with an addict in your immediate surroundings?
- How do you achieve the right work-life balance?
- How do you make sure you complete your entire bucket list before turning 60?
- How do you organize your own personal growth?
- How do you deal with love and death?
- How do you create a chosen family of friends and selected relatives—in other words, a “framily”?
